Golden Globes 2024 predictions: Picking the winners for all 27 categories

The nominees:

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Julianne Moore, May December

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Who will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

There’s a lot of talent in this category, and each of these performances is special in their own way. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has the edge, though, because of the range and depth she brings to Mary in The Holdovers. Randolph holds the emotional center of the film, and when she falls apart it’s devastating. The role has already earned her a handful of Best Supporting Actress awards from several critics associations, including Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York, so her chances of adding a Golden Globe to the list are pretty good.

The nominees:

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers Of The Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Who will win: Charles Melton

While awards analysts are favoring Robert Downey Jr. or even Ryan Gosling, we’re going out on a limb with an unconventional pick. There’s a path for May December’s Charles Melton to be a surprise upset winner in this category. He’s already been recognized by a few prestigious critics organizations and it’s been fascinating to see his rise from out of nowhere this awards season. Consider what it’s taken for him to get any kind of notice among the impressive names in this category. Melton was able to hold his own in the film against two powerful and seasoned performers in Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore, and that’s no small feat. We’re predicting the Joe-mentum will carry him through.

The nominees:

Annette Bening, Nyad

Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Lily Gladstone, Killers Of The Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy Of A Fall

Who will win: Lily Gladstone

Even before the nominations come out, the Best Actress Oscar category is already shaping up to be a two woman race between Lily Gladstone for Killers Of The Flower Moon and Emma Stone for Poor Things. And just like last year, when Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh were the two top contenders, the split between drama and comedy/musical films means Gladstone and Stone won’t have to go up against each other at the Golden Globes. We’re not counting out a surprise win from someone like Carey Mulligan or Greta Lee, but Gladstone has a clear lead here heading into the final stretch.

The nominees:

Andrew Scott, All Of Us Strangers

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers Of The Flower Moon

Who will win: Cillian Murphy

Talk of a potential Oscar for Cillian Murphy has been going on since Oppenheimer came out last summer, so this may be an obvious pick. Still, we think it’s the right one. There’s nothing that gets the hearts of awards voters fluttering like a prestige biopic with an actor who disappears into the role. Of course, that’s also true for Bradley Cooper’s Maestro. At this point the two actors are running a very close race, but we’re giving Murphy a slight advantage due to the cinematic scope of Oppenheimer in comparison to the more contained and intimate portrait of Leonard Bernstein in Maestro. We wouldn’t call it an upset if Cooper walks away with the statue, though.

The nominees:

Alma Pötsti, Fallen Leaves

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Natalie Portman, May December

Who will win: Emma Stone

Emma Stone’s main competition in her bid for another Oscar, Killers Of The Flower Moon’s Lily Gladstone, isn’t in this category, so it’s a safe call to go with Stone for the win here. Not that the likes of Margot Robbie and Natalie Portman aren’t intimidatingly talented, their roles just weren’t as showy as this one. Stone brings a striking physicality and fierce determination to her Poor Things character Bella Baxter in a way that’s simply unmatched by anyone else this year.

The nominees: 

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid

Matt Damon, Air

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Timothée Chalamet, Wonka

Who will win: Paul Giamatti

Though Paul Giamatti’s character in The Holdovers is a bitter crank for most of the film, you can somehow tell that he’s having a blast playing this guy. You could also say that about many of the other actors in this category, but what sets him apart is the way he brings Mr. Hunham to life and makes us care about him, peeling away the outer layers and showing us the human being underneath, but never in a way that seems sappy or cliché. Where other actors might have tripped up in a role like this, Giamatti keeps it all in balance.

The nominees: 

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Celine Song, Past Lives

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Martin Scorsese, Killers Of The Flower Moon

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Who will win: Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan’s road to the Oscars begins with the Golden Globes. A win here will set him on a clear path as the director to beat this awards season. Best Director is one of only a few categories in which Oppenheimer is competing directly against its fraternal twin Barbie, and we can also never count out Martin Scorsese as a serious contender, but we believe Nolan will ultimately prevail due to the film’s sweeping scope and historical subject matter.

The nominees:

Anatomy Of A Fall

Killers Of The Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

The Zone Of Interest

Who will win: Oppenheimer

It’s conceivable that Scorsese’s Killers Of The Flower Moon, or even an unexpected critical favorite like Anatomy Of A Fall, could surpass Oppenheimer in this category, but it makes sense to go with the film that received the most nominations (second only to Barbie, which isn’t competing in this category). It’s not only a prestigious film but a popular one, so the voters can feel good about appealing to both critics and audiences with this pick. We’re also predicting Nolan will will win for Best Director, and the two awards tend to go hand in hand.

The nominees:

Air

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

May December

Poor Things

Who will win: Poor Things

It’s tempting to give this one to Barbie, the film that got the most nominations this year, but the voters have another opportunity to honor the pink blockbuster with this year’s new award for Cinematic and Box Office achievement. That leaves The Holdovers and Poor Things as the main contenders in this category. They’re very different films, each great in their own way, but Poor Things is an achievement of creativity and originality on another level, and that could make the difference.

The nominees:

The Boy And The Heron

Elemental

Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse

Suzume

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Wish

Who will win: Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse

The great Hayao Miyazaki did not come out of retirement only to not win a Golden Globe. Just kidding, the Globes are the furthest thing from his mind right now. That’s why—although we appreciate the master’s late-career achievement—we predict Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse will take home the award for best animated film, just like the original did in 2019. The sequel took everything that made that film good and improved upon it, so it’s hard to make a case for any of the other films surpassing it this year.

The nominees:

Barbie

Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3

John Wick: Chapter 4

Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part 1

Oppenheimer

Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Who will win: Barbie

No one really knows what this newly added category is supposed to be, other than a way to name check popular movies that might not otherwise get a nomination. Cinematic achievement is one thing; profitability is something else. And wasn’t this race already decided by the box office numbers? It’s not a subjective measure. It’s kind of bonkers to pit Taylor Swift against John Wick, Mario, Spider-Man and Barbie (which sounds like a pretty fun costume party, actually) for the same award. That’s the kind of messy chaos we expect from the Globes, though. Since they’ve never given this award before, it’s hard to predict, but we’re going with Barbie since it fits both of the arbitrary parameters in the category.

The nominees:

Anatomy Of A Fall

Fallen Leaves

Io Capitano

Past Lives

Society Of The Snow

The Zone Of Interest

Who will win: Anatomy Of A Fall

Anatomy Of A Fall has consistently ranked high on critics’ lists of the year’s best films and is very likely headed for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars (it wasn’t submitted in the Foreign Language category there), so its chances for a win in this category are better than good. As much as it was a pleasant surprise to see nominations for Past Lives and The Zone Of Interest, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the voters don’t rule in favor of Anatomy Of A Fall.

The nominees:

Celine Song, Past Lives

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese, Killers Of The Flower Moon

Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach, Barbie

Justine Triet, Arthur Harari, Anatomy Of A Fall

Tony McNamara, Poor Things

Who will win: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach

You may notice a trend in this category. With the exception of Poor Things, each of the films nominated was directed by a screenwriter, or half of a screenwriting team. It’s also not divided across genre lines like many of the other categories, which makes it not only one of the most competitive races but quite difficult to predict. Any one of these films could potentially win the award, and it would be well deserved in all cases, but based on the amount of nominations it received and for the sake of its originality, we predict Barbie will be the ultimate victor.

The nominees:

Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse

Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things

Joe Hisaishi, The Boy And The Heron

Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer

Mica Levi, The Zone Of Interest

Robbie Robertson, Killers Of The Flower Moon

Who will win: Ludwig Göransson

If the story of this year’s Golden Globes is the dominance of Oppenheimer, as we suspect it will be, look for that trend to spread into the less prominent categories as well, like Best Original Score. There were a lot of beautiful scores this year, but Ludwig Göransson’s ambitious, organic musical soundscape for Oppenheimer helps set the pace and tone for the film like no other. Factoring that in, along with the sense that this is Nolan’s year, it adds up to another win for the epic biopic.

The nominees:

“Addicted To Romance” by Bruce Spingsteen, She Came To Me

“Dance The Night” by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Dua Lipa, and Caroline Ailin, Barbie

“I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, Barbie

“Peaches” by Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmand, and John Spiker, The Super Mario Bros. Movie

“Road To Freedom” by Lenny Kravitz, Rustin

“What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, Barbie

Who will win: “I’m Just Ken”

Before we get into Barbie’s domination in this category, let’s take a moment to appreciate the bold nomination of Jack Black’s “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie., which didn’t even make the Oscar shortlist. It’s one of those cases where the nomination is a win in itself. But back to Barbie and its three tracks included here. Musically, “What Was I Made For?” is probably the superior choice, but “I’m Just Ken” is such an important part of the film, and it got a sublime on-screen musical number, so we think it has the advantage.

The nominees:

1923

The Crown

The Diplomat

The Last Of Us

The Morning Show

Succession

Who will win: Succession

If there’s a guarantee of anything at the Golden Globes this year, it’s a win for Succession as the best TV drama of the year. Nothing else in this category comes close to the cache and acclaim HBO’s prestige drama received in its final season. And being the final season, this is the last opportunity the voters will have to honor it. We don’t think they’ll pass up the opportunity, and expect a sweep in the other categories it was nominated for as well.

The nominees:

Abbott Elementary

Barry

The Bear

Jury Duty

Only Murders In The Building

Ted Lasso

Who will win: The Bear

At last year’s Golden Globes the only award The Bear received was for lead actor Jeremy Allen White. But that was a different voting body, and it was just for season one. The truly excellent second season proved that it wasn’t just a fluke and highlighted the strong ensemble cast, so this time we think it will be appropriately rewarded. It’s certainly the best made show of the group, with Barry coming in a close second. Whether or not either of them actually qualifies as a comedy is another story.

The nominees:

All The Light We Cannot See

Beef

Daisy Jones And The Six

Fargo

Fellow Travelers

Lessons In Chemistry

Who will win: Beef

This is another idiosyncratic Golden Globes category that lumps in a bunch of very different types of shows, but the most consistently praised among them this year has to be Netflix’s Beef. A thoughtful and artistic study of the ways we are connected and disconnected from each other in modern society, it sticks with you long after you finish watching. And for a show that dropped all the way back in April of last year, that’s a crucial asset. As is the excellent cast, who we think will also get their turns at the podium on Sunday night.

The nominees:

Bella Ramsey, The Last Of Us

Emma Stone, The Curse

Helen Mirren, 1923

Imelda Staunton, The Crown

Keri Russell, The Diplomat

Sarah Snook, Succession

Who will win: Sarah Snook

Would it be wild to see Emma Stone win twice for Best Performance in a single evening? Absolutely, but we just don’t see that happening. Instead, we predict that Succession’s big night will include a win for Sarah Snook. She put everything on the table in her final season as Siobhan Roy and she had a hell of a highlight reel to submit for consideration. Snook won a Golden Globe for the role in 2022, but that year she was competing as Best Supporting Actress. Now she’s been appropriately upgraded to lead. The balcony fight with Matthew Macfadyen’s Tom alone is enough to justify a second trophy.

The nominees:

Brian Cox, Succession

Dominic West, The Crown

Gary Oldman, Slow Horses

Jeremy Strong, Succession

Kieran Culkin, Succession

Pedro Pascal, The Last Of Us

Who will win: Kieran Culkin

Everyone watched the final season of Succession in real time and said, “Give Kieran Culkin all the awards,” so it’s time to make good on that expectation. Culkin has always been very good on the show, but this season he was next-level great. Great enough, in fact, to steal this award away from fellow cast members and nominees Jeremy Strong and Brian Cox (both of whom won in previous years). Culkin gave us every note in the symphony of Roman’s extreme highs and lows in the arc of his personal and professional journey, right up to the bitter end. And unlike his castmates, Culkin has yet to win a Golden Globe, so it’s time to correct that oversight.

The nominees:

Ayo Edibiri, The Bear

Elle Fanning, The Great

Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Selena Gomez, Only Murders In The Building

Who will win: Ayo Edibiri

As is always the case, some of the winners this year are sure things and others are a tossup. This category happens to be the latter. It’s turning out to be a tight two-woman race between last year’s winner, Abbott Elementary’s Quinta Brunson, and the breakout star of The Bear’s second season, Ayo Edibiri, who wasn’t even nominated in 2023. The Bear has gained momentum since then, and Edibiri herself has raised her profile considerably with films like Bottoms and even a guest appearance on Abbott Elementary, so this might be her year.

The nominees:

Bill Hader, Barry

Jason Segel, Shrinking

Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Martin Short, Only Murders In The Building

Steve Martin, Only Murders In The Building

Who will win: Jeremy Allen White

The Bear became more of an ensemble show in the second season, but we still think Jeremy Allen White will score a back-to-back win for his deep and emotional performance as chef-turned-restaurateur Carmy Berzatto in the critically beloved series. As much as the story zoomed out to focus on other characters, Carmy was the center around which everything else turned. All of the actors in this category delivered exceptional performances in their respective shows this year, but White had arguably better material to work with and he nailed every curve the writers threw at him.

The nominees:

Ali Wong, Beef

Brie Larson, Lessons In Chemistry

Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death

Juno Temple, Fargo

Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers

Riley Keough, Daisy Jones And The Six

Who will win: Ali Wong

Beef is not an easy series to watch, and the character of Amy Lau is not easy to like; that’s kind of the whole point. In the hands of another actress it could have gone horribly wrong, but Wong brings an empathy to Amy that helps you understand the rage and dissatisfaction within her even as she does unconscionable things. It was one of the best performances we saw last year, and deserves to be recognized as such.

The nominees:

David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves

Jon Hamm, Fargo

Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers

Sam Clafin, Daisy Jones And The Six

Steven Yeun, Beef

Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers

Who will win: Steven Yeun

As great as Ali Wong is in Beef—and she really, really is—her best scenes in the series are the ones where she gets to act opposite series co-lead Steven Yeun. His character, Danny, is both her nemesis and spiritual twin. He’s also terrific individually as Danny searches for meaning in his own life, only to gradually spiral ever more out of control. It wouldn’t be right to give an acting award to one and not the other, so we’re predicting Wong and Yeun will both be honored in their respective categories.

The nominees:

Abby Elliot, The Bear

Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets

Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown

Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

J. Smith-Cameron, Succession

Meryl Streep, Only Murders In The Building

Who will win: Meryl Streep

Here’s where we might find out whether the new Golden Globes voters are as starstruck as the old HFPA used to be. In the old days we could have been relatively sure that Meryl Streep would run away with this award, but now there may be room for The Crown’s Elizabeth Debicki to sneak in for her performance as Lady Di. Streep is still our pick, though, not just because she’s Meryl Fucking Streep but because she was actually quite good in Only Murders In The Building as a meek actress who’s waited and struggled her entire career to be recognized for her talent. Talk about playing against type.

The nominees:

Alan Ruck, Succession

Alexander Skarsgård, Succession

Billy Crudup, The Morning Show

Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

James Marsden, Jury Duty

Matthew Macfadyen, Succession

Who will win: Matthew Macfadyen

The Supporting Role category is another one where we’re getting a face-off between two powerhouse shows that are in different categories everywhere else. Although Ebon Moss-Bachrach killed it in this season of The Bear, he’ll have other chances to win in the future. So in the battle of The Bear versus Succession we’re predicting a win for Matthew Macfadyen, the actor who brought us so many iconic moments as Tom Wambsgans. He’ll still have some competition with co-stars Alan Ruck and Alexander Skarsgård in this category, but Macfadyen was an essential part of the fabric of the show in the final season. And besides, Tom ended up beating out all of the Roy siblings for the crown they so coveted, so he’s on a roll.

The nominees:

Amy Schumer, Emergency Contact

Chris Rock. Selective Outrage

Ricky Gervais, Armageddon

Sarah Silverman: Someone You Love

Trevor Noah: Where Was I

Wanda Sykes: I’m An Entertainer

Who will win: Chris Rock

We’ve already written about how boring this new Golden Globes category turned out to be. In the absence of any fresh or original talent here, voters were left to choose between a handful of established stand-up comics who still turned down the hosting gig despite their nominations. If we had to pick a winner, and we do because that’s why we’re here, we’d go with Chris Rock for the sake of irony. What a turn of fate it would be to go from being punched in front of the world at the Oscars to winning a Golden Globe for a comedy special that includes a riff about that very incident.